Crude Climbs as Infrastructure Attacks Deepen Supply Risks; Gas Rises as Cold Snap Peaks

Crude advances with deferred curves breaking above $70

• The WTI prompt-month contract climbed $2.12 to $95.62/bbl on Tuesday morning (7:30 AM CT)
• Cal 2027 WTI has broken above $70/bbl, opening a window for producers to secure attractive forward pricing as deferred curves continue to reprice on tightening supply expectations
• An Iraqi oil field came under drone and missile attack while loadings from the UAE’s Fujairah port were halted again, according to Inchcape Shipping Services
• The escalation continues to tighten the global supply outlook as the conflict enters its third week, with flows through the Strait of Hormuz largely disrupted
• • The EIA lowered its 2026 global inventory build estimate to 1.9 MMbbl/d from 3.1 MMbbl/d, pointing to a more constrained balance
• Passage through the strait may become selective, with Iran allowing certain vessels to transit based on affiliation, according to JP Morgan analysts
• Some tankers have exited Hormuz by routing unusually close to Iran’s coastline, based on ship tracking data compiled by Bloomberg
• Data also indicates Iranian vessel traffic through the strait surged to wartime highs on Monday

Natural gas prompt month is up 6.0c to $3.083/MMBtu. (As of 07:30 AM CT)

• Forecasted temperatures gained 7.6 °F this morning, with late march now in line with the 10 year average
• Temperatures are expected to rebound higher tomorrow across the L48, and are forecasted to return above the 10-year average by the end of the week
• L48 Supply Is net flat from the prior day at 114.7 Bcf/d, as Canadian imports rose to offset production drops in the Northeast due to wellhead freeze-offs
• • Canadian imports rose 1.2 Bcf/d this morning from multi-year lows
  • Northeast production fell sharply by 723 MMcf/d to 35.4 Bcf/d
• Southbound flows on Transco Compressor Station 165 in Virginia dropped to their operational cap as a planned 3-day outage at Station 160 goes into effect today (Criterion)
• • TETCO has issued OFOs for several zones due to the cold front

LNG feedgas demand eases ahead of scheduled maintenance

• Corpus Christi’s feedgas demand slipped -219 MMcf/d this morning, likely just due to commissioning volatility, as the Stage Three expansion starts up
• Sabine Pass fell -61 MMcf/d this morning ahead of its scheduled maintenance
• • Creole Trail, which feeds Sabine Pass and connects to Transco, TETCO, and Trunkline, is undergoing pigging runs this week (Cheniere)