Oil Pulls Back After Trump Suggests Iran War Nearing Conclusion

Crude drops after Trump signals Iran conflict could end soon

• The WTI prompt-month contract declined $4.46 to $90.31/Bbl on Tuesday morning (7:30 AM CT)
• Crude futures pulled back after President Trump suggested the conflict with Iran may be nearing its conclusion, even as disruptions to oil production and refining persist across the Middle East
• • Trump said US forces had struck key targets in Iran that weakened the country’s missile capabilities, adding that the primary military objectives of the campaign were now “pretty well complete”
• Iranian officials pushed back on the possibility of negotiations with Washington, with Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf stating that Tehran is not currently pursuing a ceasefire
• Bloomberg stated that supply disruptions across the Middle East have now removed roughly 6.7 MMBbl/d of crude production from the global market as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to pressure regional producers
• The impact is spreading throughout Gulf supply chains, although Saudi Arabia and the UAE have increased shipments through alternative export routes to bypass Hormuz, with Saudi crude flows through the Red Sea reaching record levels this week
• The US has also taken steps to stabilize energy flows, allowing India to purchase sanctioned Russian crude and announcing a $20 billion reinsurance program aimed at supporting vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz

Natural gas is down -5.3c to $3.067/MMBtu. (As of 07:30 AM CDT)

• L48 weather forecasts shifted warmer this morning, as the late March period moves above the 10 year average
• • Temperature gains were centered in the Northeast and Midwest in the 11-15 day period
  • For the week ending 3/27, average temperatures are forecasted to be 55.9 °F, which is an increase from next weeks forecast of 51.2, but lower than this week at 57.7 °F
• Production slid -860 MMcf/d to 109.8 Bcf/d, as spring maintenance continues, losses centered in the South Central region (Criterion)
• LNG feedgas demand hit a two week high at 20.1 Bcf/d today
• • Freeport recovery led the gains, as all three liquefaction trains are restored after a pretreatment system failure (Criterion)

Golden Pass LNG yet to achieve production (S&P)

• Production startup for Golden Pass is still delayed as commissioning continues
• Although having the necessary US regulatory approval to start production, it will need to seek separate authorization from FERC to load its first cargo
• Golden Pass is still expected to be the largest source of new US liquefaction capacity in 2026