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Daily First Look
Daily briefNarciso Cano

Crude Rallies for Second Day on Escalating US-Iran War

Oil surges for a second day as US-Iran war intensifies

  • The WTI prompt-month contract climbed $4.80 to $76.03/Bbl on Tuesday morning (7:50 AM CT)
  • Crude extended gains for a second session as the US and Israel escalated military operations against Iran, with mounting concerns that energy infrastructure and transit routes in the Persian Gulf could face further disruption
  • Saudi Arabia is weighing increased exports via the Red Sea as vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains extremely limited
    • On Monday, Saudi Aramco suspended operations at its Ras Tanura refinery following a drone strike
  • According to Bloomberg, Iraq is curbing output as tanker access remains restricted amid the regional conflict

IEA signals readiness to stabilize markets

  • The International Energy Agency said it stands prepared to support oil market stability following the escalation with Iran, emphasizing that member nations collectively hold more than one billion barrels in strategic reserves
  • While regional oil production has not yet seen material losses, the agency noted that flows through the Strait of Hormuz and LNG exports have been meaningfully disrupted

Natural gas is up 17.4c to $3.134/MMBtu (7:50 AM CT)

  • Forecasted temperatures slipped primarily in the 11-15 day range of the forecast period primarily in the Midwest
    • Population weighted temperatures fell 32.5 °F over the forecast period in the Midwest, leading the widespread cooling
  • The cooling adds over 25 Bcf/d of demand back to the mix as cold moved into the 11-15 day range
  • L48 Supply fell over -2 Bcf/d today with a large drop in Canadian net imports of -1.5 Bcf/d (Criterion)
  • LNG feedgas demand snapped higher as the 1.4 Bcf/d Cameron LNG facility came back online after a 1-day outage

US DOE grants export permit for Corpus Christi LNG expansion under construction (S&P)

  • Cheniere secured a key export permit from the US DOE for two-train expansion that is currently being built at its Corpus Christi terminal
  • This will add roughly 0.67 Bcf/d of liquefaction capacity at the facility

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