OPEC+ Members Look to April Increases; Gas Weakens on Mild Forecasts

Crude poised for a second straight weekly decline

• The front-month WTI contract was up $0.15 at $62.99/Bbl as of 7:30 a.m. CT Friday
• Market attention remains centered on US–Iran negotiations and diplomatic efforts tied to the Russia–Ukraine conflict
• Several OPEC+ participants see room to restart supply increases in April, arguing that fears of a global surplus may be overstated
• • Major trading houses have expressed a similar view, noting that apparent excess supply is concentrated in sanctioned barrels from countries such as Russia and Iran, limiting availability to the broader market
  • However, the IEA lowered its demand growth outlook and now expects a surplus slightly above 3.7 MMBbl/d in 2026, a potential record annual imbalance
• The alliance’s final decision could hinge on whether the Trump administration pursues military action against Iran

Natural gas heads for second weekly loss

• The March Henry Hub contract is down about 27c from last Friday’s settlement, with the contract trading near $3.15/MMbtu this morning (8:15 AM)
• Lower-48 population-weighted temperatures are forecast to be above the ten-year average through February 20. Before falling below average
• • Next week’s warmer temperatures should result in a smaller withdrawal from storage
• Dry gas production recovered to 109.25 Bcf/d yesterday, but is down slightly this morning

Crossroads Pipeline plans 1.5 Bcf/d expansion

• To serve growing Midwest data center demand, the Crossroads Pipeline is looking at a potential 1.5 Bcf/d expansion
• The company said the project could “link multiple supply options to the growing markets in Northern Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, and South Dakota,”
• The open season will run through March 20, with an in-service date of November 2030