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Daily briefNarciso Cano

Oil Rebounds on Shifting Geopolitical Signals; Gas Firms Despite Warming Outlook

Crude rebounds as traders reassess geopolitical signals

  • The WTI prompt-month contract rose $0.34 to $62.48/Bbl by Tuesday morning (7:30 AM CT)
  • President Trump said talks with Iran on a potential nuclear agreement could begin within days, following signals from Tehran that it is open to engagement
    • Iranian media reported that a US carrier strike group in the region had moved farther away from Iran toward Yemen
  • Separately, Trump said he would roll back tariffs on India in exchange for an agreement under which Prime Minister Modi would halt purchases of Russian crude
    • Shipments of Russian oil to Indian ports have fallen toward their lowest levels in more than three years, adding to a growing backlog of unsold sanctioned barrels globally (Bloomberg)

OPEC+ points to firmer spring demand

  • OPEC+ expects global oil demand to begin rising gradually from March or April, helping improve market balance, according to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak
  • Over the weekend, the group reaffirmed plans to keep crude production steady in March

Natural gas prompt month is up 2.4c to $3.261/MMBtu (7:45 AM CDT)

  • Forcasted demand continues to trend lower this morning with weather models continuing to predict major warming
  • Forecasted average temperatures rose another 2.5°F according to the Euro Ens weather model
    • This warming was centered on the 11-15 day range, primarily in all L48 regions excluding the Rockies and West coast
    • Average temperatures will be at or above the 10 YR Average starting late next week
  • There were further production gains of 300 MMcf/d this morning to 109.4 Bcf/d
    • This is roughly in line with the average production last month of 109.2 Bcf/d, and above Feb ’25 production of 105.4 Bcf/d
    • The production increase is offset by Canadian imports falling 900 MMcf/d to 7.3 Bcf/d

LNG feedgas sees broad underperformance, losing -61 MMcf/d to 18.8 Bcf/d (Criterion)

  • The underperformance was centered around the Gulf Coast Fleet, with Plaqumines, Corpus, and Calcasieu Pass losing a combined -226 MMcf/d of feedgas demand since yesterday
  • These losses were partially offset by gains at east coast LNG facilities, specifically Elba and Cove point

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