September 17, 2019

September 17, 2019
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  • The Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman will hold a news conference before noon CST on Tuesday (Reuters)
    • The news conference should provide an update regarding attacks on Saudi oil facilities in Abqaiq and Khurais which have knocked out about 50% of Saudi production
  • Saudi Aramco notified a handful of customers that some crude deliveries in early October will be delayed to later this month (Bloomberg)
    • Citing sources wishing to not be identified, Bloomberg reports that delays at this moment range from a few days to weeks
    • AEGIS notes that the duration of outages will be key as to how much oil is pulled from global stocks
  • US President Donald Trump said on Monday that it looked like Iran was responsible for the attacks on Saudi Arabian oil facilities
    • Trump told reporters he wants to avoid war but “certainly it looks like it was Iran”
    • AEGIS notes that a conflict involving Iran and Saudi Arabia/US would add an additional premium to the market. Some of Monday’s surge in price likely incorporated the possibility of targeted attacks on those responsible
  • Natural gas is down 3.3c to $2.648/MMBtu
  • The EIA released their latest Productivity Report and stated well productivity will fall by 48 Mcf/d to 4.1 MMcf/d
    • The Appalachia and Haynesville both only grew by 0.2% in new-well gas production per rig
    • DUCs have fallen to their lowest level since November 2018 amidst a continued commitment to managing capital expenditures
    • Overall, gas production appears to have stalled with total productive capacity capping out around 92.0 Bcf/d
  • Gas prices could continue to benefit from forecasted warmer temperatures across the majority of the United States
    • Warmer weather is still forecasted to persist through the end of the month

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