- SPECIAL NOTE: AEGIS Insights will be providing client wide updates today regarding any material developments via First Look, Webinar and Market Alerts insights@aegis-energy.com . For indications, hedge structuring and execution please contact trading@aegis-energy.com. Need to review your current hedges and available capacity? https://flow.aegis-energy.com/login and reporting@aegis-energy.com are available. Looking for individual discussion on the recent developments? Contact jmccrann@aegis-energy.com jstevens@aegis-energy.com ranger@aegis-energy.com from our Market Analytics desk as needed.
- WTI is down 80c to $62.10/Bbl, and Brent is down $1.11 to $67.91/Bbl
- The Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman will hold a news conference before noon CST on Tuesday (Reuters)
- The news conference should provide an update regarding attacks on Saudi oil facilities in Abqaiq and Khurais which have knocked out about 50% of Saudi production
- Saudi Aramco notified a handful of customers that some crude deliveries in early October will be delayed to later this month (Bloomberg)
- Citing sources wishing to not be identified, Bloomberg reports that delays at this moment range from a few days to weeks
- AEGIS notes that the duration of outages will be key as to how much oil is pulled from global stocks
- US President Donald Trump said on Monday that it looked like Iran was responsible for the attacks on Saudi Arabian oil facilities
- Trump told reporters he wants to avoid war but “certainly it looks like it was Iran”
- AEGIS notes that a conflict involving Iran and Saudi Arabia/US would add an additional premium to the market. Some of Monday’s surge in price likely incorporated the possibility of targeted attacks on those responsible
- Natural gas is down 3.3c to $2.648/MMBtu
- The EIA released their latest Productivity Report and stated well productivity will fall by 48 Mcf/d to 4.1 MMcf/d
- The Appalachia and Haynesville both only grew by 0.2% in new-well gas production per rig
- DUCs have fallen to their lowest level since November 2018 amidst a continued commitment to managing capital expenditures
- Overall, gas production appears to have stalled with total productive capacity capping out around 92.0 Bcf/d
- Gas prices could continue to benefit from forecasted warmer temperatures across the majority of the United States
- Warmer weather is still forecasted to persist through the end of the month
