September 17, 2019

September 17, 2019
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WTI prompt month (OCT 19) was down $3.56 on the day, to settle at $59.34/Bbl.

Also, NG prompt month (OCT 19) was down $0.013 on the day, to settle at $2.668/MMBtu.

Saudi Arabia announced early this afternoon that crude oil supply would return to pre-attack levels by the end of this month.

The solution appears to be a combination of delivering oil in storage, restarting idle fields, and consuming less oil domestically.

The end result is sufficient oil to meet promised exports, while the damaged facilities are repaired.

October WTI shifted slightly lower to around $59 before the meeting, when Reuters and Bloomberg reported some of the same conclusions, but from their own sources.

WTI is still about $4 over where it settled on Friday. Its firmness may indicate some premium imputed into the oil curve for:

  • Lack of spare capacity while the repairs are completed;
  • Risk that the plan may not provide the supply expected; or
  • Possibility of escalated conflict with Iran or Yemen

Here is the link for a short webcast we hosted this morning regarding Monday’s trade action and market events

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