September 15, 2020

September 15, 2020
Share
Print Friendly, PDF & Email
  • WTI is up 47c to $37.73/Bbl, and Brent is up 42c to $40.03/Bbl
  • Oil rose Tuesday morning despite the IEA forecasting a bleaker outlook for demand
    • The International Energy Agency (IEA) followed other bearish demand calls this week from BP Plc, Trafigura Group and OPEC
    • Constructive Chinese data helped offset the IEA news as retail sales rose for the first time this year in August while industrial production gained by a larger-than-expected 5.6%
  • The IEA, which advises major economies, cut its forecasts for fuel consumption for the rest of the year and predicted that oil inventories won’t subside as sharply as anticipated (Bloomberg)
    • “We expect the recovery in oil demand to decelerate markedly in the second half of 2020, with most of the easy gains already achieved,” the agency said in its monthly report
    • The largest adjustment to the demand forecast was for the fourth quarter, cut by 600 MBbl/d
    • Some of the downward revision stems from the growth in teleworking, which “in the space of just a few months” is having a “meaningful impact” on demand by depressing the need for transport fuels, the IEA said
  • Natural gas is up 1.0c to $2.320/MMBtu
  • The Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) provided an update on GoM production outages as Hurricane Sally nears landfall
    • The BSEE estimated 25.28% of gas production (532.55 MMcf/d) is shut-in
    • Personnel have been evacuated from 147 production platforms out of 643 in the Gulf, according to the BSEE
  • Mountain Valley Pipeline in-service extension faces heavy opposition from environmental groups
    • On August 25, Mountain Valley Pipeline LLC applied to FERC for a two-year in-service extension for its controversial project, the Mountain Valley Pipeline
    • The in-service certificate is set to expire in October, however Equitrans has asked that the deadline be extended until October 2022
  • EQT curtailments contribute to declining production in the Appalachian basin (Platts)
    • EQT began curtailing 425 MMcf/d of gas production on September 1. These curtailments come only two months after EQT’s 1.4 Bcf/d curtailments were brought back online in mid-July
    • On EQT’s 2Q2020 earnings call, CEO Toby Rice announced “future production curtailments would remain a possibility over at least the next several years – particularly during spring and autumn shoulder seasons – as the company remains in maintenance-production mode”
    • Appalachian gas production has averaged 32.5 Bcf/d in September thus far, nearly 300 MMcf/d lower than the 32.8 Bcf/d average in August

Access Our Deeper Market Insights

Product Factor Matrix

Proprietary view of priced-in factors driving the market vs. potential bullish and bearish surprises.

Learn More

Trading Recommendations

Clear trading recommendations based on real market opportunities that enable clients to take action.

Learn More

Market Data

A comprehensive suite of the latest curves, spot pricing, settles, and strips to drive confident hedging decisions.

Learn More

Benchmarking and Trade Analytics

Real-time access to analyze your hedging strategy against AEGIS benchmarks and current market activity.

Learn More