October 6, 2020

October 6, 2020
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  • WTI is up 94c to $40.16/Bbl, and Brent is up 94c to $42.23/Bbl
  • Oil prices rose Tuesday morning on growing optimism for more U.S. fiscal stimulus and the return of President Trump to the White House
    • Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will resume talks on Tuesday on another round of pandemic stimulus
    • Trump returned home from Walter Reed. He will continue to recuperate after his COVID-19 diagnosis last week sent markets roiling
  • Libyan oil production rises to 290 MBbl/d (Reuters)
    • Libya has reopened the Marsa El Hariga, Brega, and Zueitina terminals, though damage sustained during the shutdown may prevent the terminals from operating at full capacity
    • Production rose 20 MBbl/d from last week, as exports have ramped up, with the October export total estimated to be near 3.8 MMBbl this month
    • The National Oil Corporation said it would only resume operations at oilfields and terminals the rebel militants have vacated
  • Natural gas is up 1.9c to $2.634/MMBtu
  • Hurricane Delta upgraded to Category 2 as it nears Mexico, U.S. coast
    • The hurricane is forecasted to strengthen, reaching a category three by the time it makes landfall
    • Hurricane Delta will likely make landfall in the U.S. somewhere between Louisiana and the Florida panhandle by Friday
    • Delta would be the fourth hurricane to strike the Gulf in 2020, and the 10th storm to hit the U.S. It’s also this year’s 25th named system, only the second time that mark has been reached in records going back to 1851
  • Cameron LNG loaded its first vessel since shutdown caused by Hurricane Laura (Bloomberg)
    • The SK Audace vessel left Cameron on October 5, 2020, with an increased draft, signaling it was loaded with LNG
    • Flows to the Cameron LNG have increased, from 150 MMcf/d on October 5 to 440 MMcf/d on October 6
  • Total U.S. flows of LNG are forecast to be at around 7.77 Bcf/d on Tuesday
    • Prices at Henry Hub were up 7.3%, or 17.7c yesterday, settling at $2.615/MMBtu. JKM prices were up 2.5c (0.5%), settling at $5.050/MMBtu, while the TTF prompt-month contract was up by 13.7c (3.1%), settling at $4.606/MMBtu
  • Natural gas for 2021 is only $0.07 shy of $3.00 observed a month ago – a multi-year high
    • The sharp $0.09 rally in the strip Monday helped recover most of the $0.13 loss booked last week
    • 2021 will be a interesting year for the gas markets. We expect a very tight S&D early in the year and expect gas production to be mostly flat as oil-directed shale plays have reduced activity

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