October 27, 2020

October 27, 2020
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  • WTI is up 20c to $38.76/Bbl, and Brent is up 16c to $40.62/Bbl.
    • Crude prices attempt to pare yesterday’s losses as Zeta prompts shutdown of GoM output
    • 294 MBbl/d of production in the Gulf of Mexico has been brought offline in anticipation of the Category-1 Hurricane
    • BP ekes out a small profit, warns of challenging market conditions ahead during Monday’s earnings call
  • Hurricane Zeta is forecast to make landfall somewhere between central Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Wednesday, October 28, 2020
    • About 294,000 b/d or 16pc of offshore oil production was offline yesterday, according to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE)
    • According to the BSEE, only 10 platforms of the 643 that are currently operating in the Gulf have been evacuated
    • The Hurricane’s wind speeds have fluctuated between Category-1 hurricane strength and Tropical Storm strength. Zeta is forecast to be a Category-1 hurricane when it reaches the Gulf Coast
  • BP’s earnings were down nearly 96 % from a year earlier as reduced fuel demand hurt refining margins
    • BP reported an adjusted net income of $86 million, down from $2.25 billion in 3Q2019
    • The company warned of a “volatile and challenging trading environment” where “the shape and pace of the recovery is uncertain.”
    • AEGIS notes that weak refining margins are likely to add further downward pressure to crude prices in the near term. The profitable cracks/ spreads had made it economical for refiners to continue running its units so long as there was ample product storage. As the product spreads deteriorate, we could see even more barrels of crude enter storage at refinery utilization rates drop during this shoulder season
  • Natural gas is up 0.2c to $3.026/MMBtu
  • Early winter cold, coupled with rising gas demand, is lifting Nymex gas prices to annual highs, but Appalachia basis prices continue to suffer
    • Henry hub prices have surged above $3.00/MMBtu while basis like Dominion South have remained relatively weak at about $1.50
    • Basis prices in Appalachia are weak as the region becomes increasingly insular, according to Platts
    • Nearly every interstate production-takeaway pipeline from Appalachia has now reached or is nearing its capacity (Platts)
  • Spot gas prices at the Waha Hub closed above $2 on Monday for only the second time this year
    • The recovery in price comes amid a cold snap crossing the West, recovering LNG feedgas demand and pipeline capacity returning following an outage in west Texas
    • Waha gained $2.865 on Oct. 26 to settle at $2.045/MMBtu, pulling the hub out of negative territory reached in the previous settlement
    • The National Weather Service issued a Winter Storm Warning and forecast below-freezing temperatures in West Texas for Oct. 26-27

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