October 26, 2020

October 26, 2020
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  • WTI is down $1.08/Bbl to $38.77/Bbl, and Brent is down $1.05/Bbl to $40.73/Bbl.
  • Oil is trading lower this morning as Libyan production, coronavirus concerns, weigh on the market
    • Libya has reopened its last major field. Production is expected to reach 1 MMBbl/d in just four weeks
    • Coronavirus cases continue to pile globally, with many countries shattering single day records for reported new cases
  • Libya reopens last major oil field, the 70 MBbl/d El Feel oil field
    • Libya was producing at a rate of 560 MBbl/d last week. Libya’s state-owned NOC announced they expect to reach 1 MMBbl/d in output in four weeks
    • AEGIS notes the speed at which production is returning is alarming. Previous estimates forecast that Libyan production would take 4-5 months to restore production to 1 MMBbl/d. Crude prices plummeted in response to the NOC’s updated timeline announcement on Friday
  • Oil demand wanes in major global markets, the United States and Europe, as coronavirus cases continue to escalate
    • Europe reported more than 1.3 million new cases last week, its highest single week count yet. Governments in Europe have begun reimposing curfews and travel restrictions to mitigate the spread, though experts worry that the situation may soon spiral out of control, requiring another full-scale lockdown
    • The United States has seen similar growth in reported new cases. The United States has now pushed the seven-day average on new daily cases to levels not seen since the onset of the pandemic. The United States set the record for new daily cases two days in a row over the weekend, while 18 states set single-day records
    • AEGIS notes that while the restrictions have not reached the levels seen earlier in the year, if cases continue increasing, we could see a change in demand activity as the general population limits travel to reduce the spread
  • Natural gas is up 3.8c to $3.009/MMBtu.
  • Natural Gas for 2021 has hovered around four-year highs as gas fundamentals continue to tighten
    • The expectation that gas production growth will face headwinds has lent to our bullish outlook for 2021. Dry gas production in October has averaged just 86.7 Bcf/d, according to Platts – off over 8% from its November 2019 record-high average at 95 Bcf/d
    • Storage levels and strong LNG demand are two other factors to consider, but the production impact is the most notable
  • Natural gas flows in to U.S. LNG facilities were 9.19 Bcf/d as of Monday morning, a ~2 Bcf/d increase from a week ago
    • Cameron LNG has recovered to about 1.2 Bcf/d after being offline earlier this month due to hurricane related power outages
    • Cheniere’ s Sabine Pass has recently been running at about 4 Bcf/d on Monday, almost double the amount exported only two weeks ago
    • AEGIS notes that strong LNG demand, coupled with lower gas production, puts the natural gas market in a much tighter situation this winter and in 2021 – this will help work-off record amounts of gas in storage

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