October 2, 2019

October 2, 2019
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  • WTI is up 21c to $53.83/Bbl, and Brent is up 5c to $58.94/Bbl
  • OPEC will lose one of its members come January as Ecuador said Tuesday it will leave the organization starting in 2020
    • Ecuador is one of group’s smallest producers and will have little effect on production levels
    • The South American country stated that it wants to leave the group to boost oil revenues
  • Global unplanned oil production outages from non-OPEC are at their lowest level since 2011, according to the EIA
    • Unplanned outages fell to 64 MBbl/d in August with Sudan and South Sudan the only remaining non-OPEC producers with unplanned outages
    • Among OPEC members unplanned outages have remain relatively high at 2.7 MMBbl/d in August, with Iran accounting for 2.1 MMBbl/d
  • The American Petroleum Institute reported US inventories declined by 5.9 MMBbl last week
    • More closely followed government data is due out later today
  • EIA petroleum data is due out this morning at 9:30 am CT
    • U.S. Crude Inventories:                  +      1,539 MBbls (Bloomberg surveys)
    • U.S. Gasoline Inventories:             –            30 MBbls
    • U.S. Distillate Inventories:             –      1,937 MBbls
    • U.S. Refinery Utilization:               –     0.26% change
  • Natural gas is down 1.2c to $2.271/MMBtu
  • Prompt month natural gas prices have fallen 11 days in a row, the longest losing streak on record
    • The drop is due to a combination of record natural gas production, improved Permian takeaway capacity, and mild weather forecasts
  • Analysts estimate natural gas storage to build by 109 Bcf for the week ending September 27
      • Storage estimates ranged from 93 Bcf to 115 Bcf
      • An injection within this range would bring total storage to just over 3.3 Tcf

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