November 2, 2020

November 2, 2020
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  • WTI is down 61c to $35.18/Bbl, and Brent is down 49c to $37.45/Bbl
  • Oil prices plunged to a five-month low as COVID-19 restrictions and a surge in Libyan output pushed prices lower
    • Libyan oil output nears 800 MBbl/d (Reuters)
    • New coronavirus cases continue to escalate globally, with the U.S. and Europe serving as the epicenter of the latest spike in infections
  • Libya’s oil production has risen rapidly, as the country is approaching its goal of 1 MMBbl/d announced by the country’s National Oil Corporation two weeks earlier
    • Daily crude output has reached 800 MBbl/d, and the country is targeting 1.3 MMBbl/d by the beginning of 2021, according to the National Oil Corp
    • The NOC plans to increase output to 1.6 MMBbl/d, near the levels reached in 2011 before the ousting of dictator Muammar al-Qaddafi, by the end of 2021
  • U.S., Europe see record numbers of new coronavirus infections as virus cases continue to mount
    • In October, 31 states set records for increases in new cases, 21 for hospitalized COVID-19 patients, and 14 for record increases in deaths
    • In Europe, new cases have doubled over the past five weeks, as the region hit 10 million total infections on Sunday. In response to the surging cases, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom have imposed national lockdowns mirroring those seen in March and April. Furthermore, Portugal, Spain, and Italy are on the verge of imposing a lockdown as the new restrictions have done little to mitigate the spread of the virus
    • AEGIS notes that the coronavirus continues to be a large driver in oil prices as rising output is coinciding with the rise in new cases. As lockdowns and travel restrictions are imposed, the recovery in crude demand will lose steam as demand for transportation fuels will be limited
  • Natural gas is down 11.4c to $3.240/MMBtu
  • December gas traded down Monday morning from a multi-year high of $3.35
    • The prompt month contract fell as warmer weather forecasts removed 9.6 heating degree days (HDDs) for same-day change from Friday (CWG)
    • Weather models showed a warmer East and South U.S. for the 6-12 day forecast window
  • U.S. dry gas production has rebounded from hurricane and freeze-off declines, back near 89 Bcf/d according to Platts data
    • Flows into U.S. LNG facilities have average close to 10 Bcf/d the past two days, the highest mark seen on record for the U.S.
    • Higher production could be adding to the downward price pressure in gas but strong LNG exports are likely offsetting some of the pessimism
  • Appalachian gas basis has suffered as the region’s gas production hit its highest level on record (Platts)
    • Dominion South basis spot gas prices were down 61c on Friday from Thursday’s settlement to $1.24/MMBtu
    • Marcellus, Utica production topped 34 Bcf/d on October 30, according to Platts measurements
    • EQT executives said they have already restored output at wells previously curtailed this fall. Two other Appalachian producers, including CNX and Cabot, have also previously said they have made similar curtailments – meaning those volumes could also be returning

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