November 17, 2020

November 17, 2020
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  • WTI is down 56c to $40.78/Bbl, and Brent is down 53c to $43.29/Bbl
  • Crude has pared some of yesterdays gains to start the morning, trading 1.15% lower
    • OPEC’s Joint Technical Committee (JTC) expects a slowdown in oil demand in 2021 and suggest prolonging supply cuts
    • The CFTC reported that managed-money for WTI increased its net-bullish positioning
  • OPEC+ panel suggest delaying output hike by three to six months (Bloomberg)
    • The JTC said risks to the oil markets are skewed to the downside as a surge in coronavirus infections continue to threaten global demand
    • OPEC+ is slated to return nearly 2 MMBbl/d in output to the markets beginning in January. The cartel is set to make a decision on whether the cuts should be extended between November 30, and December 1
  • The CFTC reported that managed money net positioning has increased to (+) 290,486 contracts
    • Long positions decreased by 2,255 contracts to a total of 358,666
    • Short positions also decreased by 28,869 contracts to a total of 68,180
  • Natural gas is up 0.5c to $2.702/MMBtu
  • Gas prices were pummeled on Monday as gas production neared five-month highs and weather forecasts showed more above-average temperatures in late November
    • The December contract settled 30c lower to $2.69 on Monday from Friday’s close
    • The full Cal 21 strip fell 14.6c to settle at $2.827 on Monday – 35.3c lower than the 2020 high of $3.173 reached on October 30
  • On November 16, gas production was estimated at 89.7 Bcf/d (Platts)
    • The production gains came mostly from dry gas regions of Pennsylvania, according to Platts data
  • Midwest working gas inventories are currently just below the all-time high (EIA)
    • Regional storage in the Midwest stands at 1.127 Tcf, only 28 Bcf short of the all-time high of 1.155 Tcf set in November 2016, according to the EIA
    • AEGIS notes that the large amount of gas in Midwest storage has contributed to weakness in the Chicago gas market

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