November 15, 2019

November 15, 2019
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  • WTI is up 23c to $57.00/Bbl, and Brent is up 11c to $62.39/Bbl
  • Traders were surprised by a larger than expected US crude oil inventory build on Thursday
    • Oil prices fell after the EIA reported a 2.2 MMBbl build in crude stocks, higher than consensus estimates
    • The third straight crude build wasn’t the only bearish statistic released yesterday. The EIA reported US crude production rose by 200 MBbl/d to 12.8 MMBbl/d a record high in the weekly estimates
  • If current trade tariffs are continued, global oil demand next year will be 400 MBbl/d lower than without tariffs, according to the International Energy Agency
    • The largest component of demand destruction would come from China at 190 MBbl/d, the IEA said using analysis from the IMF
    • On the other hand, if some or all the tariffs are lifted, GDP growth may not rebound immediately, but world economic growth and oil demand growth would rise significantly (Bloomberg)
  • Natural gas is up 1.5c to $2.662/MMBtu
  • The EIA reported a 3 Bcf build for the week ending November 8, this was 39 Bcf less than the 42 Bcf build in the corresponding week last year
    • That should be the final build of the injection season with total storage topping out at 3.732 Tcf, a 491 Bcf surplus to last year but only a 2 Bcf surplus to the five-year average
    • Price action, following the storage announcement, insinuated that the market was disappointed that we did not get our first withdrawal of the season last week
  • Cameron LNG is seeking permission to continue commissioning work on its second train
    • Train 2 should be on track for a 1Q2020 start on commissioning activities, according to Sempra’s CEO
    • This is slightly delayed from the anticipated 4Q2019 start date

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