November 10, 2020

November 10, 2020
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  • WTI is up 36c to $40.65/Bbl, and Brent is up 44c to $42.84/Bbl
  • WTI prices are trading sideways this morning, following yesterdays $3.15/Bbl rally
    • Tropical Storm Eta has taken a turn and is now expected to make its second landfall later this week, putting it in the path of U.S. Gulf of Mexico (GOM) offshore platforms
    • Chinese oil demand provides a bright spot for an otherwise gloomy demand outlook
  • After making a three-point turn, Tropical Storm Eta’s forecast has shifted westward toward U.S. offshore GOM platforms
    • The storm’s severity has dissipated since ravaging Central America, but flooding still caused around $100MM in uninsured losses to Florida
    • This hurricane season has been one for the record books, with so many storms that the hurricane center used up all the names on the official list. Furthermore, there is a 70% chance another tropical storm may form in the Caribbean in the next five days
  • Rising demand in China may help offset the demand losses that would occur if another lockdown-type event is imposed in Europe or the U.S. (Bloomberg)
      • Chinese crude stockpiles peaked at around 914 MMBbls on the week ending October 2, 2020. Since then, 29 MMBbls have been drawn from storage, leaving storage levels at around 885 MMBbls.
      • The changes in fuel storage were even more pronounced. Gasoline and Diesel inventories have fallen from 71% and 60% of capacity, respectively, since September 4, 2020 to 53.9% and 50% at the end of October
  • Natural gas is up 2.9c to $2.888/MMBtu
  • Global LNG is expected to gradually turn tight in the next five years as future LNG facilities delay final investment decisions (FID) (S&P)
    • The delays would ultimately lift prices according to participants at the China International Oil and Gas Trade Congress
    • “We estimate that around 97 million mt/year of production capacity FID have been delayed due to the slump in LNG prices, which is expected to result in tight supply of LNG in the global market in the future, said Zheng Jun, deputy General Manager with PetroChina
    • Northeast Asia spot LNG price may reach $8/MMBtu by 2024, according to Zheng
  •  The 4th U.S. Circuit of Appeals has granted a stay on federal authorizations for the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) – another setback for the 2 Bcf/d pipeline
    • Equitrans, the owner of MVP, recently announced an early 2021 in-service date on their 3Q earnings call
    • MVP spokeswoman Natalie Cox said while the company was disappointed with the court action, it expects that once the case is reviewed on the merits of the arguments there will be a different conclusion
    • MVP will connect Appalachia gas to Mid-Atlantic markets when complete

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