May 26, 2020

May 26, 2020
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  • WTI is up 99c to $34.24/Bbl, and Brent is up 78c to $36.31/Bbl
  • Oil prices rose on Tuesday, buoyed by recovering fuel demand and growing confidence that producers are following through on commitments to cut supplies (Reuters)
    • The market was also supported by Russia saying that its oil output had dropped close to its target of 8.5 MMBbl/d for May and June under the OPEC+ supply deal
    • OPEC+ countries are set to meet again in early June to discuss maintaining their supply reductions aimed at increasing oil prices
  • Oil rigs fell by 21 to 237 last week, further deepening a record low (Baker Hughes)
    • By state, Texas lost the most, at 12, while New Mexico lost three
    • Rigs seeking oil are down 560 from the year ago total of 797
  • Bearish bets on in WTI calendar spread options (CSO) is the most pessimistic for the WTI curve since January 2015 (CFTC)
    • Non-commercial net positioning in WTI CSO fell to -68k lots last week
    • The WTI curve has flattened considerably over the past month, a stark change from the hyper contango observed in late April
  • Natural gas is up 5.9c to $1.790/MMBtu
  • EQT formally announces curtailment of 1.4 Bcf/d on May 26
    • AEGIS note: an article was published last week detailing the production curtailments, this announcement confirms the suspicions that EQT was the producer behind the 1 Bcf/d reduction in Appalachian flows (link here)
  • A slowdown in global gas demand is impacting US feedgas deliveries for US LNG export facilities
    • Deliveries of feedgas to US liquefaction plants have fallen from 9.5 Bcf/d as of late-March to 6 Bcf/d as of mid-May, according to IHS Markit
    • “We are witnessing an historic event where U.S. LNG is taking on the new role of swing supplier,” said Terrell Benke, executive director, IHS Markit

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