March 25, 2021

March 25, 2021
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  • Suez Canal obstruction may disrupt up to 2 MMBbl/d in crude and oil products, according to Braemar ACM Shipbroking Pte
    • The ship could be stuck in the canal’s wall for weeks, according to SMIT Salvage BV – the company responsible for dislodging the vessel
    • According to Bloomberg, the best chance to dislodge the ship may not come until Sunday or Monday
    • AEGIS notes that prices have since given up their gains following the news of the obstruction. Still, if canal traffic remains disrupted for an extended period, it may help support crude prices as buyers have to source from more expensive alternatives
  • U.S. oil, gas activity sees strong recovery in 1Q2021 – Dallas Fed
    • According to the Dallas Fed’s 1Q2021 Energy Report, the surveys business activity index rose from 18.5 in 4Q2020 to 53.6 in 1Q2021, its highest reading since the survey’s inception five years ago
    • The survey’s respondents also expect a pickup in oil production, as the oil production index rose from 1.0 in 4Q2020 to 16.3 in 1Q2021
    • The Dallas Fed’s Energy Survey is sent to executives from over 155 energy firms located in the eleventh district (Texas, northern Louisiana, and southern New Mexico)
  • The market received bearish signals from the EIA’s weekly crude stats report, as U.S. stocks increased by 1,912 MBbls
    • Crude inventories for the U.S. are now at a surplus of 48.974 MMBbls to last year and a surplus of 31.48 MMBbls to the five-year average
    • On a positive note, refineries continued their recovery from the mid-February freeze that knocked nearly 3MMBbl/d of capacity offline. Refinery run-rates have increased from a record low of 56% to 81.6% during the week ending March 19
  • Lower 48 dry gas production has surged close to a 52-week high, according to S&P Global Platts data
    • Output surpassed 93 Bcf/d recently, reaching its highest level since late March
    • Operators have expanded their drilling this quarter in the Haynesville, Permian, Scoop/Stack, and Bakken. The U.S. rig count hit 411 last week, the highest since May 2020 (Baker Hughes)
    • The largest increase in gas production this month is attributed to the Haynesville, according to Platts
  • The Suez Canal blockage is disrupting the LNG market
    • As one of the world’s most important commodity checkpoints, early news of the blockage mostly affected crude oil
    • Suez Canal transit uncertainties caused JKM to rise slightly to 6.924/MMBtu on March 24. The transit disruption also pushed sellers to raise their offer levels for April and May cargoes, according to S&P
    • The effects are expected to be short-lived, but it could take a minimum of five days to clear the damaged ship, according to reports

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