June 30, 2020

June 30, 2020
Print Friendly, PDF & Email
  • WTI is down 66c to $39.04/Bbl, and Brent is down 71c to $41.00/Bbl
  • West Texas Intermediate has been caught between $35 and $40/Bbl for all of June, a great improvement over May, but held back from a further rally due to depressed demand
    • June marked the reopening of many states in the U.S., but with more people out of their homes viral cases have soared
    • A spike in coronavirus cases has pushed some states to reinstate certain measures that will likely further slow the timeline of a demand recovery
  • Demand indicators: (Bloomberg)
    • Refinery utilization
      • U.S. -20% y/y, +3% m/m
      • China Independent refineries +13% y/y, -2% m/m
      • State-run in China East +5% y/y, 6% m/m
    • Air Travel
      • U.S. throughput -77% y/y, +94% m/m
      • Commercial flights worldwide +39% m/m
      • Volume in China -39% y/y, +40% m/m
    • Road Congestion
      • New York -71% y/y, +80 m/m
      • London -56% y/y, +29% m/m
      • China -49% y/y, +13% m/m
      • Berlin -38% y/y, -19% m/m
      • Paris -30% y/y, +49% m/m
      • Sao Paulo -81% y/y, +5% m/m
  • Natural gas is up 5.1c to $1.760/MMBtu
  • The European weather model is currently forecasting 209 population-weighted Cooling Degree Days (CDDs) for the first half of July, according to Commodity Weather Group
    • This forecast would make this year the hottest start to July ever
    • The ten-year normal for this time period is 178 population-weighted CDDs, while the thirty-year normal is 157 population-weighted CDDs
  • Feedgas flows to LNG terminals reached 4.34 Bcf/d on Monday (Bloomberg)
    • Feedgas deliveries are up by 780 MMcf/d over the past week, after reaching a 14 month-low of 3.5 Bcf/d on June 9
    • By September, models show feedgas demand rising to over 7 Bcf/d, even setting new daily export demand records during the fourth quarter (Platts)
  • The Supreme Court issued an order asking the Trump administrations solicitor general to file briefs on the PennEast case (Reuters)
    • The industry has watched the case closely as many fear that the decision could give states effective veto power over vital natural gas projects in the Northeast
    • The proposed 116-mile pipeline would carry as much as 1 Bcf/d of natural gas from northern Pennsylvania to New Jersey

Access Our Deeper Market Insights

Product Factor Matrix

Proprietary view of priced-in factors driving the market vs. potential bullish and bearish surprises.

Learn More

Trading Recommendations

Clear trading recommendations based on real market opportunities that enable clients to take action.

Learn More

Market Data

A comprehensive suite of the latest curves, spot pricing, settles, and strips to drive confident hedging decisions.

Learn More

Benchmarking and Trade Analytics

Real-time access to analyze your hedging strategy against AEGIS benchmarks and current market activity.

Learn More