June 20, 2019

June 20, 2019
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  • WTI is up $1.74c to $55.50/Bbl, and Brent is up $1.66c to $63.48/Bbl
  • Oil surging this morning after Iran shot down a US military high altitude drone, further raising tensions between the two nations
    • The US drone was downed in international airspace over the Strait of Hormuz by a surface-to-air missile, according to US officials (Reuters)
      • Iran says the drone was flying over southern Iran
  • US crude stocks fell by 3.1 MMBbl to 482.4 MMBbl, a larger draw than analysts expected
    • Refiners took in 200 MBbl/d more crude oil than the previous week, averaging 17.3 MMBbl/d for the week ended June 14
      • Refiners operated at 93.9%
    • Exports rose by 300 MBbl/d to 3.4 MMBbl/d, a near record amount on average
  • Enbridge’s 2.85 MMBbl/d Mainline system remains congested as of July crude flows, but eased slightly for the seventh-consecutive month of government-mandated cuts in Alberta (Argus)
    • Apportionment persist over 40%
    • The company’s mainline system is an important conduit for Alberta exports and also effects Bakken producers
      • The system runs from Edmonton, Alberta, southeast, to Clearbrook and into the Midwest demand centers
      • Bakken operators are affected because crude oil interconnects with Enbridge’s mainline around Clearbrook
        • Less capacity on the Mainline means backed out crude oil from the Bakken to Clearbrook
  • Natural gas is up 0.1c to $2.277/MMBtu
  • Analysts surveyed by Platts are anticipating the EIA to report a 104 Bcf injection into natural gas storage for the week ended June 14th
    • The Platts’ survey ranged from 89 Bcf to 117 Bcf
    • An injection of 104 Bcf would increase stocks to 2.192 Tcf
    • The deficit versus the five-year average would shrink to 210 Bcf and the surplus versus last year would expand to 198 Bcf
  • So far, July is predicted to feature only mild warmth across the country
    • While this could change, it currently appears that July will not bring the typical summer heat needed , especially when compared to last year’s heat
  • Feedgas into Corpus Christi’s Train 2 has been ramping up to around 1.4 Bcf/d, indicating that Train 2 is gearing up for the exportation of LNG
    • The commencement of commercial operations for this train is the first stage of Cheniere’s two stage development program for their Corpus Christi facility

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