July 8, 2019

July 8, 2019
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  • The US oil-directed rig count fell by five to 788, their steepest decline in a month
    • The oil rig count is also at its lowest level since February 2018
    • Even with falling rig counts the US DOE estimates US output will rise from a record 11 MMBbl/d last year to 12.4 MMBbl/d this year and to 13.3 MMBbl/d in 2020
  • Iran is producing oil at the slowest rate since 1986, due to very effective US sanctions (Bloomberg)
    • The Islamic Republic has stepped up uranium enrichment lately, decreasing the chances of sanction relief
    • Oil tanker owners have started to avoid sending their ships near the area by the Persian Gulf where tankers have been attacked (Bloomberg)
      • Iran has been accused of attacking multiple vessels as pressure from US sanctions has helped heightened tensions
  • Dry gas production has reached 91 Bcf/d, setting a new high for the year
    • Growth is primarily coming from the Permian, Haynesville, and Bakken
    • The steady uptick in production helps explain the fourteen-week string of bearish inventory builds that have been occurring
  • Legitimate summer heat is now developing for the United States and an uptick in cooling degree days appears to be on the way
    • Temperatures should be noticeably higher in all areas except the Gulf Coast and northwestern parts of the country
    • The cooler weather around the Gulf could help to develop a cyclone, which currently sits at <40% chance of developing
  • Equitrans is seeking to start servicing their 660 MMcf/d Equitrans Expansion Project (EEP) despite ongoing issues relating to the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) (Platts)
    • EEP was planned in tandem with the MVP in order to provide additional takeaway capacity around the Pennsylvania and West Virginia area

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