July 3, 2019

July 3, 2019
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  • WTI is up 43c to $56.68/Bbl, and Brent is up 65c to $63.05/Bbl
  • Tuesday’s oil price decline of 4.8% was the biggest drop following an OPEC gathering since November 2014 (Bloomberg)
    • Concerns about the global economy overshadowed the OPEC+’s agreement to extend output cuts for nine months
    • It’s important to note that WTI was up over 11% in the two weeks leading up to OPEC’s early July meeting
  • A large US oil inventory decline of 5 MMBbl as shown by API on Tuesday afteroon and has helped pare some of the oil price losses from yesterday
    • EIA petroleum data is due out this morning at 9:30 am CT
    • U.S. Crude Inventories:                  –    2,789 MBbls (Bloomberg surveys)
    • U.S. Gasoline Inventories:             –    2,562 MBbls
    • U.S. Distillate Inventories:             –     1,163 MBbls
    • U.S. Refinery Utilization:               –     0.35% change
  • Natural gas is up 2.8c to $2.268/MMBtu
  • The EIA is expected to report a build of 79 Bcf
    • Analyst estimates range from 68 to 90 Bcf
    • Should this number prove to be within the ballpark, this would be the smallest injection since April 5th
  • July is reported to be blanketed in above-average temperatures, primarily concentrating in the East and West Coast markets, as well as Texas
    • However, milder weather could creep in during the mid to back half of the month and cool things off
  • Despite record LNG feedgas demand and exports, the US shipped zero LNG cargoes to China in 2Q2019
    • Trade disputes have zapped demand for US LNG from China; however, cargoes have begun pivoting to European and South American demand centers
    • Trade talks will be monitored closely as we near completion of the first wave of LNG projects and head into a period of almost no new projects (2021& 2022)

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