July 17, 2019

July 17, 2019
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  • WTI is up 70c to $58.32/Bbl, and Brent is up 88c to $65.23/Bbl
  • Oil is higher this morning after Tuesday’s fall in price – the biggest loss in two weeks
    • Futures quickly retreated yesterday after the US and Iran signaled a return to negotiations
    • The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a modest crude oil inventory draw of 1.4 MMBbl for the week ending July 4
      • EIA data is due out later this morning
  • Front month US Gulf sour Mars prices continued moving higher in comparison to forward months, suggesting increased backwardation(Argus)
    • August Mars rose $1.16/Bbl to a $5.29/Bbl premium to Cushing on Tuesday
    • The medium sour market is critical to certain refiners and output remains offline following Hurricane Barry
    • AEGIS notes heavy and medium crude markets have seen much tighter supply after the US sanctioned Venezuela and OPEC cut production
  • EIA petroleum data is due out this morning at 9:30 am CT
    • U.S. Crude Inventories:                  –    3,672 MBbls (Bloomberg surveys)
    • U.S. Gasoline Inventories:             –    2,400 MBbls
    • U.S. Distillate Inventories:            +        708 MBbls
    • U.S. Refinery Utilization:               –    0.43% change
  • Natural gas is up 2.3c to $2.329/MMBtu
  • The Jordan Cove LNG project is facing delays as Oregon government agencies extend reviews of the facility and continue to hold up necessary regulatory filings
    • Assuming a positive and prompt FERC ruling in the beginning of 2020, the project would be expected to be completed in 2024
    • The proposed project is still pre-FID, but would join the “second wave” of LNG projects coming online should Pembina Pipeline move forward with it
  • Bakken oil production is nearing record highs, but associated gas is holding back growth due to an all too common lack of infrastructure problem
    • The Bakken is forecast to continue growing as a major contributor to US oil production and proposed future infrastructure backs that up
      • However, with gas being flared at near record highs in the area, producers in the Bakken need to solve their gas problem before they can move forward with oil production growth
  • TC Energy is proposing a 500 MMcf/d expansion of the Columbia Gulf Transmission system in Louisiana
    • The proposed project comes on the heels of emerging pipeline constraints in the Louisiana area as LNG facilities and growing Haynesville production threaten to disrupt flows
    • TC Energy’s proposed expansion joins an ever growing list of proposed pipeline projects in the area with 2.4 Bcf/d anticipated to come online through 2021

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