July 13, 2020

July 13, 2020
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  • WTI is down 41c to $40.14/Bbl, and Brent is down 45c to $42.80/Bbl
  • Oil moved slightly lower on Monday after OPEC+ are set to ease oil supply reductions
    • Saudi Arabia is lobbying OPEC+ to increase production next month amid signs that demand is returning (Bloomberg)
    • Some OPEC+ members will meet via web conference Wednesday to discuss the group’s current policy (WSJ)
    • The Saudis are suggest relaxing current production cuts by 2 MMBbl/d to 7.7 MMBbl/d, according to delegates
  • Libya’s oil industry receives another setback after military commander Khalifa Haftar warned that he would continue to blockade ports and fields, barely a day after the country’s energy company said it would resume exports (Bloomberg)
    • The National Oil Corp., based in Tripoli, reimposed force majeure late Sunday on all shipments
    • Haftar’s military incursions have cost Libya over 1 MMBbl/d in production since January
  • Oil rigs fell by four last week to now total 181 in the U.S., according to Baker Hughes
    • Oil-directed rigs are down 603 from 784 a year ago
    • Select Basins y-o-y:
      • Permian at 125, down from 437
      • Eagle Ford at nine, down from 66
      • Cana Woodford at six, down from 48
      • Williston at 10, down from 55
      • DJ at four, down from 27
  • Natural gas is down 2.6c to $1.779/MMBtu
  • Flows to Freeport LNG have fallen to -zero-, for the first time since July 2019 (Reuters)
    • LNG flows have averaged 3.1 Bcf/d in July thus far, down from a 20-month low of 4.1 Bcf/d in June, and a record high of 8.7 Bcf/d in February
    • The EIA expects U.S. LNG exports to increase beginning in September and average 7.1 Bcf/d from December 2020–February 2021 as global natural gas demand gradually recovers (link)
  • Managed money long positioning increased by 2,333 contracts to total 260,203 contracts
    • Speculator short positioning fell by 25,616 contracts to total 238,261 contracts
    • Managed money net positioning has flipped positive for the first time since late May

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