January 3, 2020

January 3, 2020
Print Friendly, PDF & Email
  • WTI is up $2.16 to $63.34/Bbl, and Brent is up $2.41 to $68.66/Bbl
  • Oil prices surged following a U.S. air strike in Baghdad that killed the head of Iran’s elite Quds Force (Reuters)
    • The air strike on Friday at the Baghdad Airport was ordered by President Trump
    • Major-General Qassem Soleimani, the Iranian killed in the strike, was the architect of Iran’s spreading military influence in the Middle East and a hero among many Iranians and Shi’ites in the regions (Reuters)
    • The attack raises concerns for an escalation in the region and possible disruption of crude supplies
    • Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed harsh revenge on the “criminals” who killed Soleimani
  • Prices across the whole WTI curve are higher
    • Cal 22 is up 1% this morning, Cal 21 is up almost 2%, and Cal 20 is up 3%
  • EIA weekly data is due at 10:00 AM CST
    • U.S. Crude Inventories:                  –     3,270 MBbls (Bloomberg surveys)
    • U.S. Gasoline Inventories:             +     1,660 MBbls
    • U.S. Distillate Inventories:             +       577 MBbls
    • U.S. Refinery Utilization:               +     0.45% change
  • Natural gas is up 1.4c to $2.136/MMBtu
  • The 15-day weather models subtracted 7 Heating Degree Days overnight, helping to send gas prices briefly below $2.10/MMBtu
    • The 11-to-15-day forecast continues to imply a warmer-than-normal weather outlook, especially on the east coast
  • Analysts estimate a -67 Bcf withdrawal for the week ending December 27, this would stronger than the -24 Bcf withdrawal in the corresponding week last year
    • Estimates ranged from a withdrawal of -54 Bcf to -78 Bcf
    • A withdrawal within expectation would place total stocks at 3.18 Tcf

Access Our Deeper Market Insights

Product Factor Matrix

Proprietary view of priced-in factors driving the market vs. potential bullish and bearish surprises.

Learn More

Trading Recommendations

Clear trading recommendations based on real market opportunities that enable clients to take action.

Learn More

Market Data

A comprehensive suite of the latest curves, spot pricing, settles, and strips to drive confident hedging decisions.

Learn More

Benchmarking and Trade Analytics

Real-time access to analyze your hedging strategy against AEGIS benchmarks and current market activity.

Learn More