January 29, 2020

January 29, 2020
Print Friendly, PDF & Email
  • WTI is up 18c to $53.66/Bbl, and Brent is up 42c to $59.93/Bbl
  • Oil prices were up nearly 2% this morning, before giving back the gains, after reported attacks in Saudi Arabia by Houthi rebels
    • Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi’s have targeted facilities in Jizan, Saudi Arabia on the Red Sea (Reuters)
    • A military spokesman told Al Masirah TV that the group had also targeted the Abha and Jizan airports, Khamis Mushait military base and other sensitive targets in Saudi Arabia
    • AEGIS notes that so far no news of supply disruptions have been reported
  • The number of coronavirus infections in China has overtaken the official number recorded during the 2003 SARS epidemic (Bloomberg)
    • Airlines across the world have suspended more flights to China as governments try and stop the spread of the virus
    • China’s oil throughput in February and March have been revised down by 600 MBbl/d – 1 MMBbl/d respectively by industry experts and market analysts (Platts)
    • When the viral epidemic peaks, China’s product demand is forecasted to fall by 540 MBbl/d in that quarter, according to a Beijing-based analyst
    • The product demand loss could be translated to 770 MBbl/d of crude throughput, according to the analyst
  • EIA weekly data is due at 10:00 AM CST
    • U.S. Crude Inventories:                  +        258 MBbls (Bloomberg surveys)
    • U.S. Gasoline Inventories:             +     1,613 MBbls
    • U.S. Distillate Inventories:             –        599 MBbls
    • U.S. Refinery Utilization:               –      0.55% change
  • Natural gas is down 3.8c to $1.896/MMBtu
  • History repeats itself as the colder-than-normal days that were forecasted in the 9-to-15-day outlook have all but disappeared after last night’s weather runs
    • The European weather model lost 20 Heating Degree Days in the past 24 hours, the equivalent of 40 Bcf of demand
  • India is attempting to renegotiate their oil-linked LNG supply deals with Qatar as JKM spot prices test levels below $4.00/MMBtu (Bloomberg)
    • The equivalent purchase price for an oil-linked contract is approximately $9 to $10/MMBtu
    • Re-negotiating long-term contracts has grown increasingly popular over the last several months as ample supply has made the cost of purchasing spot cargoes the cheaper option
    • Platts notes that, in 2018, a buyer would have saved $1.00/MMBtu purchasing LNG via a Brent-linked contract rather than purchasing on the spot market

Access Our Deeper Market Insights

Product Factor Matrix

Proprietary view of priced-in factors driving the market vs. potential bullish and bearish surprises.

Learn More

Trading Recommendations

Clear trading recommendations based on real market opportunities that enable clients to take action.

Learn More

Market Data

A comprehensive suite of the latest curves, spot pricing, settles, and strips to drive confident hedging decisions.

Learn More

Benchmarking and Trade Analytics

Real-time access to analyze your hedging strategy against AEGIS benchmarks and current market activity.

Learn More