- Discord reported between OPEC+ members, Saudi Arabia, and Russia, as the cartel's next meeting to discuss supply strategy approaches (Bloomberg)
- The Kingdom has urged other members to exercise caution in returning supply, despite oil prices reaching their one-year high. On the other hand, Russia is in favor of continuing with the supply hikes
- The next OPEC meeting is scheduled for March 4, where the group will decide whether to continue with the planned 500 MBbl/d output hikes, as well as discuss Saudi Arabia's 1 MMBbl/d supplementary cuts
- Godman raises Brent forecasts as supply remains highly inelastic to the recent rally
- Supply will lag behind demand for several reasons, according to Goldman Investment Research (GIR). OPEC+ will fall behind the market re-balancing, especially as the pace of drawdowns accelerates, with non OPEC+ producers showing little signs of more activity, the deficit has room to run
- The bank raised its 2Q2021 and 3Q2021 forecast by $10/Bbl to $70/Bbl, and $75/Bbl, respectively
- Texas oil refineries shut by cold-weather disruptions may take several weeks to resume normal operations (P&G Journal)
- Nearly 1/5th of all oil processing capacity was halted as the recent winter-freeze knocked off power and disrupted processing units at refineries along the Texas Coast
- "We are 2-1/2 to three weeks away from restoring most operations" at affected refineries, said Andrew Lipow, president of Houston-based consultancy Lipow Oil Associates
- AEGIS notes that the lasting impact of the freeze on price will likely be a tug of war between supply disruptions, and crude-processing disruptions. Oil production will likely return quicker then processing capacity, potentially pressuring WTI in the near term