- WTI is up 42c to $53.71/Bbl, and Brent is up 21c to $59.33/Bbl
- Oil near one-month highs as Brent crude continues its longest uninterrupted run of gains since January 2019
- The oil complex is hopeful that Chinese economic stimulus will cushion fuel demand from the impact of the viral outbreak (Bloomberg)
- China cut its benchmark lending rate on Thursday and only reported 349 new confirmed cases in Hubei province on Wednesday, the lowest in more than three weeks
- Prices are also supported by new American sanctions on Rosneft’s trading arm that could impede shipments from Venezuela
- Venezuela’s oil production fell to 750 MBbl/d last month, according to Argus
- The OPEC nation’s production has already fallen by 450 MBbl/d from January 2019 when the U.S. imposed sanctions that prohibited imports of Venezuelan crude into the U.S. (Argus)
- AEGIS notes that the combination of possible lower Venezuelan exports and the continued reduction in Libyan production has help offset some demand loss from the coronavirus
- EIA weekly data is due at 10:00 AM CST
- U.S. Crude Inventories: + 2,824 MBbls (Bloomberg surveys)
- U.S. Gasoline Inventories: + 225 MBbls
- U.S. Distillate Inventories: – 1,297 MBbls
- U.S. Refinery Utilization: – 0.50% change
- Natural gas is down 1.1c to $1.944/MMBtu
- Analysts estimate a withdrawal of -141 Bcf for the week ending February 14, this would be less than the -163 Bcf withdrawal in the corresponding week last year
- Estimates ranged from a draw of -121 Bcf to a draw of -154 Bcf
- A withdrawal within this range would contract the five-year average to 210 Bcf
- Shell sees the LNG market well-supplied into the middle of 2020, but things could balance out by the end of the year (Bloomberg)
- Despite the oversupplied market, volumes that were supposed to go to China are being picked up by other countries such as India or South Korea
- Europe absorbed roughly 90% of LNG growth in 2019, but southern Asia and South America could be set to provide some relief moving forward
