December 5, 2019

December 5, 2019
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  • WTI is up 33c to $58.76/Bbl, and Brent is up 64c to $63.64/Bbl
  • Oil prices are higher this morning as OPEC is expected to announce deeper oil cuts today in Vienna
    • Reuters reported that OPEC is seeking to increase production cuts by the group and its allies by more than 400 MBbl/d from the current cut level of 1.2 MMBbl/d
    • OPEC will meet today and OPEC plus its allies (Russia) will officially meet tomorrow
  • AEGIS notes that Cal 20 for WTI is now at the highest level since mid-September and on the upper end of the current trading band at $56+
    • Many of our clients have eyed the $55/Bbl level as the threshold for taking action on Cal 20
  • US crude inventories fell by 4.9 MMBbl to 447.1 MMBbl last week, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA)
    • The large draw, coming after five consecutive weeks of builds, help send crude prices higher on Wednesday
  • Natural gas is up 3.1c to $2.430/MMBtu
  • Analysts expect a 21 Bcf withdrawal for the week ending November 29, this would be 41 Bcf less than the 62 Bcf withdrawal in the corresponding week last year
    • Estimates ranged from a draw of 15 Bcf to 27 Bcf
    • Underwhelming storage withdrawals should continue to compound pressures on prompt month natural gas prices, placing a greater emphasis on the need for colder weather to emerge
  • Capacity constraints are emerging on the Texas Eastern Transmission (TETCO), Columbia Gulf,  and Transcontinental pipelines in the Northeast (PointLogic)
    • TETCO north to south flows from Ohio, through Kentucky, have been reduced by almost 0.75 Bcf/d due to constraints at the Danville Compressor Station
      • This is the same station that was responsible for an explosion back in late August/early September
    • Columbia Gas Transmission has also issued a Force Majeure for specific interconnects due to the reduced flows on TETCO as it depends on the line’s physical flows and pressures
    • Transcontinental Pipeline has also issued a significant amount of operational flow orders for its Northeastern portion of the pipeline
      • North to Southbound flows on the line appear to be reduced by approximately 1.1 Bcf/d

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