- Barclays foresees Iran output revival as a threat to 2H2021 oil price estimate - Bloomberg
- The bank noted that increased supply from Iran may add downside risk to the bank's forecast but could also result in a slower tapering of cuts by OPEC
- Barclays also pointed out that the muted response in U.S. production bodes well for the forecasts. In contrast, demand estimates for emerging Asian markets have been revised downwards and could dip further if the virus resurgence continues
- Tax adjustments by PRC prompt pickup in crude purchases, refinery run rates in China
- Beginning in mid-June, the country will introduce a levy on inbound bitumen mix, light-cycle oil (LCO), and mixed aromatics. The new tax has forced Chinese buyers to increase purchases before the new levy takes place
- Spot market prices have already reacted with differentials for Middle Eastern and Russia crude grades rising to multi-month highs
- Oil likely needs more than fundamentals to hit $100/Bbl – J.P. Morgan
- According to JPM, the global S&D balance would need to be 4 MMBbl/d tighter than the current forecast, beginning in 3Q, to draw enough inventories to push oil prices to $100
- The bank currently sees Brent prices exiting the year at $74, with an average of $68 for 2021
- Most downside risks are skewed to the supply side of the equation, including rising OPEC+ and Iranian output