Blog

March 12, 2021

Vaccinations, Passage of $1.9 Trillion Relief Bill Send Yields Soaring

Markets were jolted on Friday by the surge in yields, after relatively smooth bond sales this week had eased concerns on the fixed-income outlook. The wave of stimulus and vaccine…

Blog Oil & Gas Refined Products

February 26, 2021

2021 Gas Market Is Least Supplied of Last Four Years

This year’s gas market may be tighter than many realize. So far this winter, we have been depleting inventories at a rapid clip, despite the mild weather in November through…

Nick Hillman

February 26, 2021

Treasuries Set for Biggest Monthly Yield Surge Since 2016

The U.S. economy appears primed to recover from the COVID-19 slump much faster than others, causing havoc in the bond markets this week and potentially exacerbating the kind of imbalances…

Blog Oil & Gas

February 26, 2021

Producer 2021 Guidance Implies Nearly Flat Oil Production

The theme of large oil independents and supermajors for 2021 is to keep production flat, pay down debt, and create more free-cash flow. For a sample of large producers who…

Jay Stevens

February 19, 2021

Intermediate and Long-Term Interest Rates Reach One-Year Highs

The selloff in the Treasury market continued this week after coming off a long Presidents’ Day weekend. Reflation trades continue to proliferate, as fixed rate Treasury bonds were sold to…

Blog Natural Gas Oil & Gas

February 19, 2021

February Weather Helps End-of-Season Storage Get Back on Track

AEGIS now expects summer storage to start under 1,500 Bcf, the lowest in the last eight years, except for 2014 (polar vortex) and 2019. We derived an end-of-season (EOS) storage…

Nick Hillman

Blog Oil

February 19, 2021

U.S. Production Could Rise 1 MMBbl/d. OPEC Knows This.

A six-dollar rise in 2022 and eight-dollar rise in 4Q2021 WTI prices suggest production could surge by near 1 MMBbl/d by 2023. That is, if operators’ response to drilling economics…

Matt Marshall

Blog Oil & Gas

February 18, 2021

Saudi Arabia Teases Output Increases As Brent Nears $65

Saudi Arabia plans to unwind 1 MMBbl/d of supply cuts starting in April.* The action would end the 1 MMBbl/d of unilateral curtailments the country announced in early January for…

Jay Stevens

February 17, 2021

Inflationary Expectations Dominate Most of the Week’s News

U.S. Treasury yields rose, and inflation outlooks have jumped after the U.S. Treasury Department on Thursday saw tepid demand for the sale of $27 billion of new 30-year bonds. This…