August 8, 2019

August 8, 2019
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  • WTI is up $1.17 to $52.26/Bbl, and Brent is up 77c to $57.00/Bbl
  • The oil markets are trading higher this morning after reports that Saudi Arabia had called other producers to discuss the slide in crude prices
    • Saudi oil officials plan to keep its crude oil exports below 7 MMBbl/d in August and September to drain global inventories, according to a Saudi official (Reuters)
    • AEGIS notes that demand fears are overshadowing much of the work OPEC+ has done to help balance the crude oil markets
  • The EIA’s crude oil inventory report on Wednesday didn’t help an already falling oil market
    • US crude stocks rose unexpectedly by 2.4 MMBbl last week, according to the EIA
      • Exports fell to their lowest level since October
  • Vitol, the world’s largest independent commodity trader, revised its global oil demand growth estimates and now sees growth at just 600-650 MBbl/d this year (Bloomberg)
    • In an interview with Bloomberg, Vitol’s chief executive Russel Hardy said next year demand is set to pick up to around 800 MBbl/d
    • AEGIS notes Vitol’s demand estimates are on the very low end when compared to major agencies like the IEA, EIA, and OPEC
  • Natural gas is up 3.8c to $2.121/MMBtu
  • Analysts expect storage to build by 57 Bcf for the week ending August 2
    • Responses ranged from 54 Bcf to 65 Bcf
    • A build within this range would increase stocks to roughly 2.7 Tcf and shrink the deficit to the five-year average to almost 110 Bcf
  • Tellurian noted on their earnings call that they are planning to make a final investment decision on their 4 Bcf/d Driftwood LNG facility this year
    • Commercial service for the project is expected in 2023
    • Open seasons for Tellurian’s three pipeline projects: Permian Global Access Pipeline, Haynesville Global Access Pipeline, and Delhi Connector Pipeline are all over subscribed
  • Scott Sheffield, CEO of Pioneer, noted that the Permian is being drilled far to aggressively
    • Sees evidence of the Delaware peaking by 2024 if production is not scaled back
    • He also suggests that the Midland Basin will be the only growing basin in the U.S. past 2025

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