April 9, 2020

April 9, 2020
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  • WTI is up $1.27 to $26.36/Bbl, and Brent is up $1.25 to $34.09/Bbl
  • Oil edged higher this morning as the world’s largest producers moved closer to a supply reduction deal
    • Russia said it’s ready to cut production by 1.6 MMBbl/d
    • Algeria’s energy minister, who hold OPEC’s rotating presidency, said the OPEC+ meeting today will discuss curbing output by 10 MMBbl/d
    • The group meets at 4pm Vienna time, which is 9am CST
  • U.S. crude stocks rose sharply last week on lower refinery runs and a drop in exports
    • Domestic crude inventories increased by 15.2 MMBbl, or 3.2%, to 484.4 MMBbl in the week ended April 3, according to the EIA
    • Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, hub rose by 6.4 MMBbl to 49.2 MMBbl
    • U.S. refiners cut run rates by 1.3 MMBbl/d from the previous week; processed an average of 13.6 MMBbl/d of crude last week
    • Domestic crude output fell by 600 MBbl/d to 12.4 MMBbl/d in production, according to the EIA
  • Natural gas is down 1.6c to $1.767/MMBtu
  • A fifth US LNG tanker is now en route to China, joining the four that were announced on Monday (Platts)
    • Despite the demand impact from the coronavirus, IHS still sees Asian LNG imports rising in 2020
    • The prompt-month JKM contract has remained relatively flat over the last two weeks, despite India’s force majeure on new LNG cargoes and the threat of additional force majeures from other countries
  • Kinder Morgan is suspending work on a portion of the 2.0 Bcf/d Permian Highway Pipeline due to an underground drilling fluid leak
    • The construction delay may have a negligible impact on the 1Q2021 anticipated start date
    • It currently remains to be seen whether current social distancing orders will impact the time schedule
  • Analysts expect a 25 Bcf build for the week ending April 3, this build would be equivalent to the corresponding week last year
    • Analyst injection estimates ranged from a low of 9 Bcf to a high of 36 Bcf
    • A withdrawal within expectations would expand the surplus to the five-year average to 311 Bcf with total stocks at 2.011 Tcf

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