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January 8, 2021

Georgian Senatorial Outcomes Fundamentally Reset Markets

The dual victories by the two Democratic candidates, Reverend Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff, in the Georgian senatorial runoff elections were one of several historical events that effected America and…

Rob Sabo

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January 6, 2021

Likely Democrat Wins = Higher Interest Rates

The U.S. interest rate markets, and thus the currency markets, are reacting to the events last night with the Georgian Senatorial elections. Rates are climbing on the expectations of a…

Matt Marshall

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December 11, 2020

Lack of Progress on Additional Fiscal Relief Reverses Last Week’s Gains in Equities and Rise in Yields

Despite the Food and Drug Administration’s likely emergency authorization of Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine and the possible first doses to be distributed and administered as early as this coming Monday, the U.S. economy has a rough road ahead. It…

Rob Sabo

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December 4, 2020

Equities Continue Setting Daily Records While Ten-Year Yield Flirts With 1.00%

Despite Disappointing Employment News, Markets Focus on New Stimulus Hopes Nonfarm payrolls increased by 245,000 in November from the previous month, missing the median estimate of a 460,000 gain by economists. The labor force…

Rob Sabo

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November 6, 2020

With Election Results All But Decided, Additional Fiscal Stimulus Remains Uncertain

Democrat and former Senator and Vice President Joe Biden looks as if he has the advantage in reaching the 270 Electoral College votes required to become the next President of…

Rob Sabo

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October 23, 2020

Longer-Term Rates Rise to Their Highest Levels Since June on Stimulus Bets

As fixed income traders bet on the likelihood of a stimulus deal and a Democratic Party election sweep, the ten-year Treasury broke through key technical levels, spurring a selloff across…

Rob Sabo

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October 16, 2020

Stimulus Plans Remain on Life Support

The chances for a pre-election stimulus for the U.S. economy from Congress are all but over, with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin pointing to political dynamics undermining the months-long negotiations. With fiscal…

Rob Sabo

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October 9, 2020

To Stimulate or Not to Stimulate, That is the Question

No soap opera has had the daily twists and turns seen in American politics and markets over the past ten days. Market volatility has picked up while investors are whiplashed…

Rob Sabo

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October 2, 2020

Real Problem if New Fiscal Package Starts with a “2”

U.S. markets were whipsawed this week by speculation over whether a fiscal stimulus deal would be reached, along with the news of President Trump’s case of the coronavirus. Talks between…

Rob Sabo

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September 25, 2020

The Fed and Treasury Testify Before Congress

As mandated by the CARES Act passed by Congress in March, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin participated in their quarterly exercise of appearing before the…

Rob Sabo

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September 18, 2020

Fed Fails to Deliver Ample Clarity to the Market

The substantial buildup in anticipation of this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (“FOMC”) two-day meeting and accompanying statement, along with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference and Q&A session,…

Nick Hillman

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September 11, 2020

Rates Remain Range-Bound Despite Increases in Inflation

Treasury yields and interest rate swap levels traded in a narrow range this week, ending 2 bps (0.02%) to 5 bps (0.05%) lower in maturities from two to 30 years.…

Rob Sabo

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September 4, 2020

Strong Unemployment, Payrolls Report Push Yields Higher

Two measures of the current state of unemployment were released this week, Initial Weekly Jobless Claims and the monthly Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment report. Both reports reflected higher than expected…

Rob Sabo

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December 2, 2020

The End of LIBOR

LIBOR Transition FAQs   The end of LIBOR as a reference interest rate index comes with market risks that must be managed. LIBOR is being discontinued and will need to…

Rob Sabo

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August 28, 2020

Fed to Run Economy with New Inflation Policy

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced “average inflation targeting” as the central bank’s official policy approach in his keynote address at the Fed’s virtual Jackson Hole symposium Thursday, apparently abandoning…

Rob Sabo

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August 14, 2020

Market Interest Rates Rise on Strengthening Economic Data and Record Treasury Debt

Higher consumer prices, improved jobless claims data, record levels of Treasury debt auctions, and retail sales returning to pre-pandemic levels all helped to raise Treasury and interest rate swap yields…

Rob Sabo

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August 7, 2020

Payrolls Rise, Unemployment Drops in July

The U.S. labor market continued to regain ground in July, though at a slower pace, indicating the economic rebound is still making headway despite a surge in coronavirus infections.Payrolls increased by…

Rob Sabo

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July 31, 2020

Economy Shrinks A Record 32.9% in 2Q 2020

The U.S. economy suffered its sharpest downturn since at least the 1940s in the second quarter of this year, highlighting how the coronavirus pandemic has ravaged businesses across the country…

Nick Hillman

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July 31, 2020

Warning: Weakening Dollar May Be Artificially Supporting Oil Prices

A soft USD often strengthens WTI, but not this time. The U.S. dollar (USD) has lost about 5% in value against a basket of other currencies, in July. The USDX…

Matt Marshall

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July 17, 2020

Positive Signs Among COVID-19 Outbreaks

Despite the increased outbreaks of the coronavirus in several U.S. states forcing either a halt or a reversal of openings, a number of economic measures weighed in better than expected…

Rob Sabo

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