May 8, 2024

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• LME Aluminum 3M Select is down $40/mt, nearing last week’s lows.
  • Last trade was $2,528.5/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • After falling to the lowest level since at least 1997, on-warrant aluminum inventories (meaning the metal is available to trade) in LME warehouses have started to increase in the past few days. This is likely metal that has been re-warranted and not new deliveries into LME warehouses. After the UK and LME banned its citizens from trading Russian metals and the LME subsequently banned such deliveries, several large trading houses were briefly able to take advantage of a loophole in the LME’s new rules. Given that the rules have been revamped, it's likely that this is a short-term issue. (Sources: Bloomberg, LME)
• LME Copper 3M Select is down $125.5/mt, trending sideways.
  • Last trade was $9,884/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • Freeport McMoran expects to export 900,000 mt of copper concentrate from Indonesia in 2H2024, unnamed sources told Reuters earlier this week. Freeport’s export license with the country was set to expire this month but has since been extended after positive talks with the Indonesian government. In 2020, Indonesia banned raw material exports but allowed companies such as Freeport to maintain export quotas while their smelters were under construction. Freeport’s Indonesian copper smelter is set to open this month but won’t reach full capacity until later in the year. (Source: Reuters)
• Prompt month CME HRC Steel last settled at $785/st (6:45 AM CST).
• Like copper and aluminum, LME Nickel prices have surged in recent months. The benchmark LME Nickel 3M Select contract is up nearly 12% since January 1 but has been rangebound for the past several weeks. If you are a stainless steel producer or similar end-user of nickel, please reach out to AEGIS for strategies.

Price Indications

Today's Charts

AEGIS Insights

5/7/2024: LME checks Russian aluminium play but is it game over?

5/7/2024: Piedmont Lithium wins US state mining permit after posting reclamation bond

5/7/2024: Exclusive: Freeport may export up to 900,000 metric tons of Grasberg copper concentrate in second half

5/6/2024: First Quantum hopes new Panamanian leader brings fresh look to disputed copper mine

5/6/2024: EU clears $14.9 bln purchase of U.S. Steel by Japan's Nippon

5/6/2024: First Quantum hopes new Panamanian leader brings fresh look to disputed copper mine

5/6/2024: EU clears $14.9 bln purchase of U.S. Steel by Japan's Nippon

Important Disclosure: Indicative prices are provided for information purposes only, and do not represent a commitment from AEGIS Hedging Solutions LLC ("Aegis") to assist any client to transact at those prices, or at any price, in the future. Aegis makes no guarantee to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Aegis and/or its trading principals do not offer a trading program to clients, nor do they propose guiding or directing a commodity interest account for any client based on any such trading program. Certain information in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements, which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “edge,” “advantage,” “opportunity,” “believe” or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Such statements are not guarantees of future performance or activities.