- Oil prices hold steady as the dollar rises to an 11-month high
- November ’23 WTI gained 3c this morning to trade around $88.85/Bbl
- The US dollar surged to the highest since November ’22 amid higher US treasury yields and weakness in other currencies
- A strong dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities expensive for holders of other currencies
- OPEC+ convenes tomorrow, and minimal policy changes are expected after the UAE Energy Minister Mazrouei affirmed the group's current production cut strategy as "the right policy"
- The EIA reported that US petroleum exports hit a record ~6 MMBbl/d in 1H23, marking a 2% increase from 1H22
- In 1H23, the rise in petroleum product exports was driven by propane and other HGLs, while exports of major fuels like gasoline, distillate, and jet fuel declined compared to 1H22
- Additionally, the market awaits the ADP and JOLTs report, which is indicative of the US labor market's health, to be released today
- US fall refinery maintenance season shapes up to heaviest since pre-COVID (Bloomberg)
- Refining capacity is set to decrease by about 2.5 MMBbl/d for maintenance from September to December, marking an 11% increase from last year
- The 3-2-1 futures crack spread fell from its YTD $43/Bbl high in August to $23/Bbl. While diesel margins have held strong, gasoline margins are seeing a post-summer decline
- Estimated offline processing capacity for September was 0.53 MMBbl/d and is projected to be 1.48 MMBbl/d in October, and 0.45 MMBbl/d in November, with no planned outages in December, according to Energy Aspects
- However, these figures only account for scheduled maintenance; real numbers may rise due to unforeseen shutdowns or additional work