- Oil surges to a nine-month high as risks to supply offset demand concerns
- September ’23 WTI gains 70c this morning to trade around $83.62/Bbl
- Equities trade lower, and the dollar weakened early on Wednesday
- Saudi Arabia last week extended its 1 MMBbl/d cut into September; Russia to reduce exports by 0.3 MMBbl/d
- Concerns rise over potential disruptions to Russian flows from the Black Sea after President Zelensky's warning of retaliation
- The remarks followed a Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian oil tanker over the weekend
- Russian fuel oil exports soar, but diesel dip dampens overall exports (Bloomberg)
- Russia’s weekly fuel oil shipments surged to the highest in 2023, reaching about 1.1 MMBbl/d through Aug. 4
- Diesel and gasoil exports declined by 18% from the previous week to 1.1 MMBbl/d, and naphtha shipments nearly halved to 0.31 MMBbl/d
- July's total Russian oil exports rose to 2.67 MMBbl/d, the highest since April, with diesel and gasoil at 1.27 MMBbl/d, nearing March's all-time high, according to Vortexa
- Russian oil shipments are closely watched to gauge the classified official production data by Moscow. While crude exports remained stable until Aug. 6, refinery rates increased in early August ahead of state subsidy cuts
- EIA forecasts record U.S. oil production in 2023
- US oil output is expected to hit a record 12.8 MMBbl/d in 2023, up from the earlier 12.6 MMBbl/d forecast, driven by high well productivity and crude prices, per EIA’s August STEO
- Despite the increase in US oil output, consumption of refined products is expected to decline, particularly in jet fuel, gasoline, and diesel
- However, total oil demand in the US is expected to rise due to increased natural gas liquids usage
- Global oil production is predicted to expand by 1.7 MMBbl/d to 103 MMBbl/d in 2024, with over 70% of this growth coming from non-OPEC countries, primarily the US, Brazil, Canada, Guyana, and Norway