- Libya increased oil production to over 1 MMBbl/d after production had been reduced by more than half since mid-April, touching a low of 560 MBbl/d
- The increase follows an agreement with protesters and heads of tribes reached more than a week ago to reopen fields and export terminals that had been largely shut since mid-April
- The market could receive some relief from the increase in production and exports, but things will likely remain uncertain as long as political unrest persists in the nation
- Russian crude exports have decreased for five consecutive weeks, down by 480 MBbl/d, or 13% since mid-June (Bloomberg)
- Much of the export decline can be attributed to weakening demand from China and India, who had previously increased their oil purchases following Russia's invasion of Ukraine
- Chinese demand was down by 52 MBbl/d in the last four-week average compared to the prior period, and Indian demand fell by 18 MBbl/d
- Although both countries still take in nearly 55% of Russian seaborne oil exports, shipments to China and India are now down nearly 30% from their peak; the exact decrease depends on where the 4 MMBbl/d of Russian oil that is currently aboard tankers is sent